a 15 minute recipe for bullshit

When a usually good blogger produces a post that is unadulterated bullshit, my initial reaction is to suppose that someone has hijacked the blog in order to discredit the author. Unfortunately that does not seem to be the case when BCL attempts to refute Lawrence Solomon in under 15 minutes.

In his haste to win a minor skirmish in the Climate Wars, BCL has not only trips himself up, but has also served up a steaming pile of bullshit for his many loyal readers. Five more minutes of research would have consigned the post apparent to the discard pile, but when one senses an easy victory it's difficult to restrain the impulse to click the publish post button and yell victory.

Item 1. "soil scientist Cliff Ollier"

The tactic here is to reduce the subject's scientific credentials in order to portray him as unqualified. But as noted here the soil scientist is actually much more than just that;

Cliff Ollier, DSc., is Emeritus Professor and Research Fellow at
the University of Western Australia. He was formerly at A.N.U., U.N.E., Canberra
University, University of Papua New Guinea, and University of Melbourne . He has
worked all over the world as a geologist, geomorphologist and soil scientist. He
is the author of about ten books, several translated into foreign editions, and
over 300 publications.

The study of glaciers falls within the field of geology. By omitting Dr Ollier's full qualifications, BCL has rendered unto his readers a caricature for their amusement.

Item 2. "Here's Mr. Ollier describing what's impossible"

BCL goes on to selectively quote from the Solomon article the following;

The scenarios [of rapid melting]...stem from models divorced from the real
world. They rely on imaginary glaciers and ice sheets -- not on the actual
formations that exist in Greenland and Antarctica -- and demonstrate no
understanding of how glaciers flow.[...]
Ice sheets do not melt from the surface down -- only at the edges,' Prof.
Ollier explains. The modellers' mechanism that has 'meltwater lakes on the
surface finding their way down through cracks in the ice and lubricating the
bottom of the glacier is not compatible with accumulation of undisturbed snow
layers.'"

What he omits is of vital importance to understanding Dr Ollier's objection to the models in question.

the models rely "on the concept of an ice sheet sliding down an inclined plane
on a base lubricated by meltwater, which is itself increasing because of global
warming," Prof. Ollier explains. "In reality, the Greenland and Antarctic ice
sheets occupy deep basins, and cannot slide down a plane."

What he has done is set up a strawman for the coming refutation. It is not Dr Ollier's position that meltwater lakes don't leak out through cracks in the ice, it's that because the ice sheets are not on an inclined plane, they cannot slide down into the ocean lubricated by the meltwater.

Item 3. "And here's an account by real glaciologists of the impossible happening just this April"

The article cited can be read here. It's not long but it does contain some interesting information which is relevant to Dr Ollier's argument. That's where an extra 5 minutes of research would have proved useful. BCL only quotes one small part in order to beat the stuffing out of the strawman he constructed.

A report in today's Science describes how researchers recorded the drainage of
one such lake in Greenland. The lake was roughly 5.6 km2, but drained completely
in less than an hour and a half. The lake's contents rapidly made their way down
to the bottom of the ice sheet, 980 m below the surface. During this period, the
average drainage rate was 8700 m3/s. For reference, the average flow rate for
Niagara Falls is only 5700 m3/s.

Well, there's more and it tends to support Dr Ollier's argument rather than refute it. While the team noted movement in the ice sheet after the lake drained,

The study found that, while the water lubricating the base of the ice sheet
caused seasonal speedups of its motion on the order of 50 to 100 percent, the
speedup of outlet glaciers, where the ice sheet drains into the ocean, was only
about 15 percent. While other factors are causing outlet glaciers to speed up,
lubrication of the base doesn't seem to be the main cause.

They also found that the phenomena is quite common. Which poses the question that if this phenomena is common and has been occurring on for many years, why has there been no significant melting of the ice sheets? Could it be that the models are wrong just as Dr Ollier has pointed out?